- 1 Introduction.......................................... 1
Part I The European Crisis
- 2 The Evolution and the Current Status of the European FinancialCrisis....................................... 7
- 2.1 EvolutionoftheEuropeanUnion ....................... 7
- 2.2 TheHistoricalEvolutionoftheCrisis .................... 13
- 2.3 AnInitialApproachtotheCrisis ....................... 16
- References............................................ 20
- 3 TheGreatEuropeanRecession ........................... 21
- 3.1 TheCostsoftheGreatRecession ....................... 22
- 3.2 TheRedistributionConsequences ....................... 25
- 3.3 TheComebackLagandtheDivergenceEvolution ........... 30
- References............................................ 31
Part II The Structural Elements of the Crisis
- 4 TheEuropeanSuboptimalandSegmentAreas ............... 35
- 4.1 TheLimitationsofEurozoneMemberCountries ............ 36
- 4.2 TheSegmentedEconomicandSocialAreas ............... 38
- References............................................ 42
- 5 EuropeanStockAsymmetries ............................ 43
- 5.1 PopulationandGeostrategyAsymmetries ................. 43
- 5.1.1 PopulationBalances ........................... 44
- 5.1.2 GeostrategyBalances .......................... 47
- 5.2 TheEconomicStockImbalances ....................... 48
- 5.2.1 Debt:PublicandPrivate ........................ 48
- 5.2.2 TangibleandIntangibleAssets ................... 49
- References............................................ 51
6 EuropeanFlowImbalances .............................. 53
- 6.1 PublicDeficits..................................... 53
- 6.2 TheExternalAccounts ............................... 54
- 6.3 SavingsandInvestments ............................. 58
- 6.4 EmploymentandInflation ............................ 59
- 6.5 TheCompetitivenessImbalances ....................... 60
References............................................ 64
7 Culture, Institutions and Politics as Crisis Generators . . . . . . . . . . 65
- 7.1 CulturalBackground ................................ 65
- 7.2 PoliticalBalances .................................. 67
- 7.3 Governance....................................... 70
- 7.4 InstitutionsandIncentives ............................ 71
References............................................ 75
Part III The Policy Response
- 8 TheGrowthLagandStrategicChoices ..................... 81
- 8.1 TheLong-TermGrowthLag .......................... 81
- 8.2 TheGrowthPriorities ............................... 83
- 8.3 The Attainment of Long-Term Competitiveness and Export
Orientation....................................... 84 - 8.4 TheBank-BasedGrowth ............................. 87
- 8.5 DebtManagement.................................. 88
- References............................................ 94
- 9 FiscalPolicyandConsolidation ........................... 97
- 9.1 TheEffectivenessofFiscalPolicy ...................... 97
- 9.2 Contractionary or Expansionary Austerity Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
- 9.3 Tax-Based Versus Spending-Based Fiscal Consolidations . . . . . 101
- 9.4 TheSizeofFiscalMultipliers .......................... 102
- 9.5 FiscalTighteninginaLiquidityTrap .................... 104
- 9.6 TheRoleofPerceivedRiskofSovereignDebt............. 105
- 9.7 CanAusterityBeSelf-Defeating? ....................... 106
- 9.8 Synchronized Fiscal Consolidations and Spillover Effects . . . . . 109
- 9.9 FiscalConsolidationProgramsAftertheEuro .............. 110
- References............................................ 115
- 10 TheSupplySidePolicies ................................ 119
- 10.1 SupplySideRationale .............................. 119
- 10.2 StructuralReforms ................................. 120
- 10.3 The Required Adjustment and the Adjustment Speed . . . . . . . . 123
- 10.4 The Effectiveness of Economic Policy in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . 126
- References............................................ 131
- 11 MonetaryPolicy....................................... 133
- 11.1 TheImbalancedMonetaryPolicy ...................... 133
- 11.2 RebalancingandInflation ............................ 137
- 11.3 The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and the
LiquidityTrap.................................... 140 - 11.4 TheFinancialTransactionTax ........................ 141
- References............................................ 142
- 12 ThePolicyoftheEuropeanCentralBank ................... 145
- 12.1 TheOpenMarketOperations ......................... 145
- 12.2 TheECBasaTreatyChanger ........................ 149
- 12.3 TheMultipleBondEquilibria ......................... 150
- 12.4 TheEuro’sConfidence .............................. 153
- 12.5 TheRoleoftheLenderofLastResort .................. 155
- References............................................ 158
- 13 Restoration of the Banking System and the Banking DeleveragingProcess ................................... 159
- 13.1 ContagionandSystemicRisk ......................... 159
- 13.2 TheFinancialMarketFragmentation .................... 161
- 13.3 WeakEuropeanBanks .............................. 163
- 13.4 The Credit Crunch and the Financing of the Real Economy . . . 165
- 13.5 TheDeleveragingProcess ........................... 166
- References............................................ 173
- 14 TheRoleoftheIMFintheEuropeanEvolution.............. 177
- 14.1 TheCharacteroftheIMF ............................ 177
- 14.2 Global Financial Governance and the IMF’s Role . . . . . . . . . . 181
- 14.3 TheIMFinEurope................................ 181
- 14.4 TheIMFandSovereignDebtManagement ............... 183
- 14.5 ConditionalityandSupply-SidePolicies ................. 185
- 14.6 TheIMFandDomesticPolicies ....................... 187
- References............................................ 189
Part IV The Political Economy of European Synthesis and the Medium Future
15 DebatesandChoices .................................... 193
- 15.1 The Political Economy Approach: Ideas and Cultural
BackgroundDiversification .......................... 193 - 15.2 TheCriticalDebates ............................... 195
- 15.3 TheSocialModelControversy ........................ 198
References............................................ 201
- 16 TheEuropeanSynthesis ................................. 203
- 16.1 TheEuropeanResponsetotheCrisis ................... 203
- 16.2 FiscalandMacroManagement ........................ 204
- 16.3 Financial Stabilization, Banking Sector Reorganization and
theDeleveragingSchedule ........................... 206 - 16.4 TheStructuralReadjustment .......................... 213
- References............................................ 221
- 17 TheMedium-TermFuturefortheWorldandEurope .......... 223
- 17.1 The Medium-Term Future for the World: 2015–2025 . . . . . . . . 223
- 17.2 TheTwoPotentialWorlds ........................... 226
- 17.3 TheEuropeanEvolution ............................. 228
- References............................................ 232
- 18 EconomyandPolitics ................................... 235
- 18.1 An Integrated Approach to the Crisis and Politics . . . . . . . . . . 235
- 18.2 ThePoliticalEconomyoftheEuropeanCrisis ............. 239
- 18.2.1 Geostrategic Issues and Economic Nationalism . . . . . . 239
- 18.2.2 Beggar-Thy-NeighborPolicies .................. 243
- 18.2.3 The Euro as an Exchange and Reserve Currency and
theInternalRepercussions ..................... 244 - 18.2.4 The Democratic Deficit and Monetary Policy . . . . . . . 245
- 18.2.5 PoliticalShiftandEconomicPolicy .............. 247
- 18.2.6 Towards an Indebted Fragmented European
Federation................................. 249 - References............................................ 258
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